Will petrol prices in the UAE go down or up in July 2025?

Dubai: The UAE’s Fuel Prices Committee will once again announce new prices for the next month as June 2025 comes to an end. The biggest question for consumers and businesses is: Will petrol be cheaper or more expensive in July?

Global crude oil prices fluctuate

Global crude oil prices remained volatile in May and June due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil touched a five-month high of $78.6 per barrel, but has now fallen to $65.6.

Read More: Gas Prices in UAE Today

Middle East tensions ease

Despite the tensions that began in mid-June, oil and LPG tanker movements in the region have continued. This means that supplies have not been affected, which can be expected to put pressure on prices for the next month.

Also Read: Super 98 Petrol Prices Today

OPEC+ production increases

OPEC+ has announced an increase in oil production by 411,000 barrels per day for July 2025. This is the third consecutive month that OPEC+ has increased production by the same amount to maintain its market share.

According to Vijay Walecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial:

Continued supply growth and limited demand are likely to lead to excess supply in the next half of the year, which could put pressure on prices.

Also Read: Today Diesel Prices in UAE

Demand growth is modest but disappointing

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) June 2025 report, global oil demand is expected to increase by 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, while the rate will be 740,000 barrels in 2026.

But experts say that a huge increase in demand is not expected due to the slowdown in the global economy and the growing trend towards clean energy.

July Price Review

According to data from the past 10 years, the ratio of increase or decrease in oil prices in July has been almost equal, that is, 50:50. But in general, July has seen an average decrease of -2.5%.

Current prices for June 2025

The UAE Fuel Price Committee announced the following prices for June:

• Super 98 petrol: AED 2.58 per litre (same as May)
• Special 95 petrol: AED 2.47 per litre (same as May)
• E-Plus 91 petrol: AED 2.39 per litre (same as May)
• Diesel: AED 2.45 per litre (down from AED 2.52 in May)

Price determination method

Fuel prices in the UAE are announced near the end of each month, depending on international crude oil prices, supply and distribution costs, and global supply and demand.

What will prices be in July?

Experts seem to agree that:

• Increased supply
• Slow demand
• Negative weather trends
• Reduced tensions in the region

All these factors point in the same direction: a decrease in petrol prices in July 2025 is likely.

Conclusion:

If you are based in the UAE and drive or use fuel for business, you may get some relief in July. However, the final decision will be made by the UAE Fuel Price Committee at the end of June.